The 635 Data Lab / 2026 / Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

The excuses now have receipts.

Separate the roster, the decision, and the bounce. A star getting hurt does not turn a sensible start into bad managing.

Release 2026-w5-v1 · Through Week 5 only · 30 games · 933 player-week records

League-wide honors for weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

Points King

2022 Pro Bowlers832.33 points

Schedule Sun God

For Gosh Darn Tuten+1.36 schedule wins

Schedule Victim

Ted-1.27 schedule wins

Nuclear Week

My Nabers' Runaway McBrideW5: 188.50 points

Record versus the field

Expected wins here mean schedule-neutral wins from scores already posted, not a prediction. Positive schedule swing means the actual schedule supplied more wins than the all-play benchmark.

Manager records and schedule luck
Team	Record	Points ↓	All-play	Expected wins ↓	Scoring WAR* ↓	Schedule swing ↓	Schedule difficulty ↓
Carls girthy ballsJake Carlson	4-1	780.64	33-22	3.00	+0.50	+1.00	-14.78
For Gosh Darn TutenJon Locarni	4-1	740.03	29-26	2.64	+0.14	+1.36	-18.11
Dalvin and the ChimpmunksAndy Heckman	4-1	724.50	33-22	3.00	+0.50	+1.00	-13.59
2022 Pro BowlersStephen Hoth	3-2	832.33	43-12	3.91	+1.41	-0.91	+11.73
My Nabers' Runaway McBrideBrent Holst	3-2	746.00	34-21	3.09	+0.59	-0.09	-1.42
The DunbearSam Dunbar	3-2	732.22	27-28	2.45	-0.05	+0.55	+1.85
Lizard KingWill Maness	2-3	749.78	28-27	2.55	+0.05	-0.55	-4.58
Joaquin GoffWill Shires	2-3	664.49	18-37	1.64	-0.86	+0.36	+2.43
Kory’s Fat CockKory Hubers	2-3	660.57	12-43	1.09	-1.41	+0.91	-0.28
The Milk ManJohn Hachat	1-4	703.25	24-31	2.18	-0.32	-1.18	-7.63
TedTeddy Pane	1-4	702.95	25-30	2.27	-0.23	-1.27	+21.02
Philadelphia GregsGreg Ayars	1-4	655.05	24-31	2.18	-0.32	-1.18	+23.37

*House Scoring WAR is wins above a .500 scoring baseline, not literal waiver replacement. Schedule difficulty is opponent points above the mean of your eleven possible opponents, per week. These are retrospective comparisons, not a causal measure of pure luck.

Weekly evidence

Completed team-week scores
Week	Team	Result	Points	Opponent	Opponent points	Scoring rank	All-play	Actual minus Yahoo
W5	Lizard King	L	147.39	Joaquin Goff	151.24	8/12	4-7	+6.60
W5	Joaquin Goff	W	151.24	Lizard King	147.39	7/12	5-6	+9.71
W5	My Nabers' Runaway McBride	W	188.50	Philadelphia Gregs	141.29	1/12	11-0	+39.34
W5	Philadelphia Gregs	L	141.29	My Nabers' Runaway McBride	188.50	9/12	3-8	+20.69
W5	Dalvin and the Chimpmunks	W	157.85	Ted	115.75	6/12	6-5	+30.27
W5	Ted	L	115.75	Dalvin and the Chimpmunks	157.85	12/12	0-11	-28.59
W5	For Gosh Darn Tuten	W	161.23	Kory’s Fat Cock	139.52	3/12	9-2	+19.86
W5	Kory’s Fat Cock	L	139.52	For Gosh Darn Tuten	161.23	11/12	1-10	-10.47
W5	The Dunbear	W	158.15	Carls girthy balls	140.39	5/12	7-4	+5.40
W5	Carls girthy balls	L	140.39	The Dunbear	158.15	10/12	2-9	+1.68
W5	The Milk Man	L	158.30	2022 Pro Bowlers	164.70	4/12	8-3	+12.74
W5	2022 Pro Bowlers	W	164.70	The Milk Man	158.30	2/12	10-1	+11.96
W4	Lizard King	W	147.76	Kory’s Fat Cock	111.60	6/12	6-5	-1.14
W4	My Nabers' Runaway McBride	W	156.70	Ted	138.00	3/12	9-2	+3.08
W4	Kory’s Fat Cock	L	111.60	Lizard King	147.76	12/12	0-11	-33.91
W4	Ted	L	138.00	My Nabers' Runaway McBride	156.70	7/12	5-6	-1.05
W4	Dalvin and the Chimpmunks	W	151.80	The Dunbear	114.75	5/12	7-4	+8.09
W4	The Dunbear	L	114.75	Dalvin and the Chimpmunks	151.80	11/12	1-10	-36.25
W4	For Gosh Darn Tuten	L	120.85	Carls girthy balls	183.45	9/12	3-8	-17.19
W4	Carls girthy balls	W	183.45	For Gosh Darn Tuten	120.85	1/12	11-0	+26.27
W4	Joaquin Goff	W	130.30	The Milk Man	119.05	8/12	4-7	-2.07
W4	The Milk Man	L	119.05	Joaquin Goff	130.30	10/12	2-9	-22.94
W4	Philadelphia Gregs	L	153.90	2022 Pro Bowlers	182.50	4/12	8-3	+28.46
W4	2022 Pro Bowlers	W	182.50	Philadelphia Gregs	153.90	2/12	10-1	+35.27
W3	Dalvin and the Chimpmunks	L	92.20	For Gosh Darn Tuten	158.40	11/12	1-10	-54.95
W3	Carls girthy balls	W	142.05	Lizard King	120.70	7/12	5-6	+1.93
W3	The Milk Man	W	165.30	Philadelphia Gregs	71.15	4/12	8-3	+22.60
W3	For Gosh Darn Tuten	W	158.40	Dalvin and the Chimpmunks	92.20	6/12	6-5	+16.48
W3	Kory’s Fat Cock	W	159.50	Joaquin Goff	131.85	5/12	7-4	+25.48
W3	The Dunbear	W	175.06	My Nabers' Runaway McBride	123.30	2/12	10-1	+30.57
W3	2022 Pro Bowlers	L	174.05	Ted	184.25	3/12	9-2	+25.90
W3	My Nabers' Runaway McBride	L	123.30	The Dunbear	175.06	9/12	3-8	-9.29
W3	Philadelphia Gregs	L	71.15	The Milk Man	165.30	12/12	0-11	-71.43
W3	Ted	W	184.25	2022 Pro Bowlers	174.05	1/12	11-0	+52.69
W3	Lizard King	L	120.70	Carls girthy balls	142.05	10/12	2-9	-31.39
W3	Joaquin Goff	L	131.85	Kory’s Fat Cock	159.50	8/12	4-7	+1.93
W2	The Milk Man	L	125.35	Kory’s Fat Cock	139.30	11/12	1-10	-18.76
W2	Kory’s Fat Cock	W	139.30	The Milk Man	125.35	8/12	4-7	-11.01
W2	Ted	L	154.25	Philadelphia Gregs	158.76	4/12	8-3	+11.56
W2	Philadelphia Gregs	W	158.76	Ted	154.25	3/12	9-2	+22.82
W2	2022 Pro Bowlers	W	187.40	The Dunbear	127.36	1/12	11-0	+47.31
W2	The Dunbear	L	127.36	2022 Pro Bowlers	187.40	10/12	2-9	-14.92
W2	Dalvin and the Chimpmunks	W	158.95	Lizard King	151.28	2/12	10-1	+16.08
W2	Lizard King	L	151.28	Dalvin and the Chimpmunks	158.95	6/12	6-5	+2.86
W2	For Gosh Darn Tuten	W	150.20	My Nabers' Runaway McBride	93.50	7/12	5-6	+25.46
W2	My Nabers' Runaway McBride	L	93.50	For Gosh Darn Tuten	150.20	12/12	0-11	-50.48
W2	Carls girthy balls	W	152.25	Joaquin Goff	134.95	5/12	7-4	+26.82
W2	Joaquin Goff	L	134.95	Carls girthy balls	152.25	9/12	3-8	+0.09
W1	My Nabers' Runaway McBride	W	184.00	Ted	110.70	1/12	11-0	+40.30
W1	Lizard King	W	182.65	The Milk Man	135.25	2/12	10-1	+41.42
W1	Ted	L	110.70	My Nabers' Runaway McBride	184.00	11/12	1-10	-26.83
W1	The Milk Man	L	135.25	Lizard King	182.65	7/12	5-6	-10.35
W1	Dalvin and the Chimpmunks	W	163.70	Joaquin Goff	116.15	3/12	9-2	+16.04
W1	Joaquin Goff	L	116.15	Dalvin and the Chimpmunks	163.70	10/12	2-9	-20.67
W1	For Gosh Darn Tuten	W	149.35	2022 Pro Bowlers	123.68	6/12	6-5	+11.78
W1	2022 Pro Bowlers	L	123.68	For Gosh Darn Tuten	149.35	9/12	3-8	-10.31
W1	Kory’s Fat Cock	L	110.65	Carls girthy balls	162.50	12/12	0-11	-40.34
W1	Carls girthy balls	W	162.50	Kory’s Fat Cock	110.65	4/12	8-3	+24.50
W1	Philadelphia Gregs	L	129.95	The Dunbear	156.90	8/12	4-7	-13.12
W1	The Dunbear	W	156.90	Philadelphia Gregs	129.95	5/12	7-4	+23.70

Who got everybody's best shot?

Opponent production compared with forecasts
Team	Opponent forecast surprise ↓	Own forecast surprise ↓	Interpretation
Philadelphia Gregs	+132.47	-12.58	Production relative to recorded Yahoo projections. Includes injuries, model error, and ordinary volatility; not automatically luck.
Ted	+122.37	+7.78	Production relative to recorded Yahoo projections. Includes injuries, model error, and ordinary volatility; not automatically luck.
2022 Pro Bowlers	+90.75	+110.13	Production relative to recorded Yahoo projections. Includes injuries, model error, and ordinary volatility; not automatically luck.
Joaquin Goff	+52.00	-11.01	Production relative to recorded Yahoo projections. Includes injuries, model error, and ordinary volatility; not automatically luck.
My Nabers' Runaway McBride	+48.84	+22.95	Production relative to recorded Yahoo projections. Includes injuries, model error, and ordinary volatility; not automatically luck.
The Dunbear	+34.67	+8.50	Production relative to recorded Yahoo projections. Includes injuries, model error, and ordinary volatility; not automatically luck.
Kory’s Fat Cock	+26.39	-70.25	Production relative to recorded Yahoo projections. Includes injuries, model error, and ordinary volatility; not automatically luck.
Lizard King	-16.54	+18.35	Production relative to recorded Yahoo projections. Includes injuries, model error, and ordinary volatility; not automatically luck.
The Milk Man	-31.13	-16.71	Production relative to recorded Yahoo projections. Includes injuries, model error, and ordinary volatility; not automatically luck.
Dalvin and the Chimpmunks	-66.17	+15.53	Production relative to recorded Yahoo projections. Includes injuries, model error, and ordinary volatility; not automatically luck.
Carls girthy balls	-83.43	+81.20	Production relative to recorded Yahoo projections. Includes injuries, model error, and ordinary volatility; not automatically luck.
For Gosh Darn Tuten	-99.94	+56.39	Production relative to recorded Yahoo projections. Includes injuries, model error, and ordinary volatility; not automatically luck.