The 635 Data Lab / 2026 / Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

The excuses now have receipts.

Separate the roster, the decision, and the bounce. A star getting hurt does not turn a sensible start into bad managing.

Release 2026-w5-v1 · Through Week 5 only · 30 games · 933 player-week records
Clear team/search

Monday Morning QB, without the cheap shots

The process label uses the recorded projections only. An outcome gap never changes it. Close calls are within the greater of 2 projected points or 10% of the larger projection. This is a house review tolerance, not a statistical confidence interval.

No automatic bad-manager grades. Historical kickoff availability, late news, and acquisition/lock timestamps are not fully archived. Numerical benchmarks are provisional. A zero projection for a player who scored is quarantined, not treated as proof the manager knowingly started a zero.
Projection benchmark versus hindsight maximum
TeamUsable benchmark weeksProjected points bypassedCrystal-ball gapIn-game exit startsReturned after injury
Carls girthy balls4/59.1898.8500
For Gosh Darn Tuten4/53.4353.4201
Dalvin and the Chimpmunks4/53.56100.6021
2022 Pro Bowlers4/50.38120.5210
My Nabers' Runaway McBride4/50.7990.8011
The Dunbear3/56.2497.9330
Lizard King5/56.22127.4910
Joaquin Goff5/52.7846.7500
Kory’s Fat Cock3/50.0555.0310
The Milk Man5/52.4572.9210
Ted5/52.7371.8520
Philadelphia Gregs4/50.25112.5011

Projected points bypassed is a descriptive difference from the highest-projected legal roster, not points lost or a penalty. Crystal-ball gap is the perfect-hindsight ceiling and is not counted against managing. Compare only equal coverage; missing weeks are not zero.

Outcome receipts

Each line is one legal alternative. Alternatives can reuse the same bench player across lines and must not be added together. All hypothetical swaps still require a real availability/lock-time review.

Starting decisions and better-scoring bench alternatives
Week / teamStarter / actualBench / actualYahoo projectionsProcess labelContextOutcome gap
W1 / Philadelphia GregsKyler Murray: -0.20Jalen Coker: 36.8020.72 / 10.97Projection supported
Game injury exitRuled out after a first-quarter hit while sliding.
+37.00
W3 / 2022 Pro BowlersHunter Henry: 1.50Brock Bowers: 30.6011.12 / 13.10Close call
Not injury-cleared
+29.10
W1 / Philadelphia GregsDeVonta Smith: 8.30Jalen Coker: 36.8014.48 / 10.97Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+28.50
W1 / Philadelphia GregsTetairoa McMillan: 9.50Jalen Coker: 36.8014.86 / 10.97Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+27.30
W5 / Carls girthy ballsKirk Cousins: 16.15Drake Maye: 43.2016.06 / 21.86Projection deviation
Not injury-cleared
+27.05
W1 / Philadelphia GregsSam LaPorta: 9.80Jalen Coker: 36.8012.13 / 10.97Close call
Not injury-cleared
+27.00
W1 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksJaylen Waddle: 1.20Isaiah Likely: 27.8013.85 / 10.35Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+26.60
W1 / Philadelphia GregsTyler Warren: 10.30Jalen Coker: 36.8012.90 / 10.97Close call
Not injury-cleared
+26.50
W5 / 2022 Pro BowlersCeeDee Lamb: 2.90Mike Evans: 29.3019.62 / 12.54Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+26.40
W4 / Lizard KingParker Washington: 2.12Emanuel Wilson: 27.0016.91 / 8.90Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+24.88
W4 / Lizard KingKalif Raymond: 3.24Emanuel Wilson: 27.009.48 / 8.90Close call
Not injury-cleared
+23.76
W2 / Lizard KingJustin Herbert: 9.80Patrick Mahomes: 32.8019.87 / 20.01Close call
Not injury-cleared
+23.00
W5 / 2022 Pro BowlersMichael Wilson: 7.35Mike Evans: 29.3017.55 / 12.54Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+21.95
W3 / Carls girthy ballsDrake Maye: 4.75Kirk Cousins: 24.7020.71 / 15.81Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+19.95
W1 / Lizard KingQuentin Johnston: 3.70Kyle Monangai: 23.4010.88 / 8.08Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+19.70
W1 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksMark Andrews: 8.90Isaiah Likely: 27.8010.42 / 10.35Close call
Not injury-cleared
+18.90
W2 / My Nabers' Runaway McBrideTrevor Lawrence: 8.05Bryce Young: 26.9518.21 / 18.14Close call
Not injury-cleared
+18.90
W5 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksJordan Addison: 0.00Justin Jefferson: 18.800.00 / 17.49Needs context
Not injury-clearedOfficial report: Hamstring; Limited Participation in Practice; game status Questionable.
+18.80
W3 / Philadelphia GregsTetairoa McMillan: 3.70Juwan Johnson: 22.3014.45 / 10.04Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+18.60
W3 / Philadelphia GregsJalen Coker: 3.80Juwan Johnson: 22.3013.36 / 10.04Projection supported
Not injury-clearedQuestionable but expected to play.
+18.50
W3 / 2022 Pro BowlersMike Evans: 12.40Brock Bowers: 30.6013.33 / 13.10Close call
Game injury exitCarted off following a rib-area injury; did not return.
+18.20
W5 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksTyler Shough: 0.80Justin Jefferson: 18.8019.13 / 17.49Close call
Not injury-cleared
+18.00
W4 / My Nabers' Runaway McBrideBraelon Allen: 8.70Brian Robinson: 25.7012.45 / 6.10Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+17.00
W5 / Carls girthy ballsJoe Burrow: 26.50Drake Maye: 43.2022.50 / 21.86Close call
Not injury-cleared
+16.70
W1 / Carls girthy ballsRome Odunze: 7.20Chuba Hubbard: 23.7011.27 / 11.08Close call
Not injury-cleared
+16.50
W4 / Joaquin GoffDJ Moore: 2.70Jameson Williams: 19.2013.26 / 12.09Close call
Not injury-cleared
+16.50
W4 / My Nabers' Runaway McBrideGeorge Pickens: 9.50Brian Robinson: 25.7015.11 / 6.10Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+16.20
W5 / TedKC Concepcion Jr.: 1.50Emeka Egbuka: 17.2011.89 / 10.83Close call
Not injury-cleared
+15.70
W1 / The DunbearA.J. Brown: 5.60Deebo Samuel Sr.: 20.960.00 / 9.81Needs context
Game injury exitAnkle injury in the opener; subsequently placed on injured reserve.
+15.36
W4 / The DunbearJosh Downs: 4.60Deebo Samuel Sr.: 19.9616.05 / 11.15Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+15.36
W1 / The DunbearJosh Downs: 5.70Deebo Samuel Sr.: 20.9612.15 / 9.81Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+15.26
W4 / Kory’s Fat CockGeno Smith: 9.95Aaron Rodgers: 24.9515.88 / 15.93Close call
Not injury-cleared
+15.00
W3 / The DunbearJameis Winston: 7.30Marcus Mariota: 22.2516.07 / 14.21Close call
Not injury-cleared
+14.95
W3 / Philadelphia GregsSam LaPorta: 7.40Juwan Johnson: 22.3011.79 / 10.04Close call
Not injury-cleared
+14.90
W3 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksJustin Jefferson: 5.20Jordan Addison: 20.0016.31 / 9.32Projection supported
Game injury exitAttempted to resume play but could not continue. Ankle side is inconsistent in the report.
+14.80
W5 / TedRomeo Doubs: 2.60Emeka Egbuka: 17.2013.07 / 10.83Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+14.60
W5 / The Milk ManCarnell Tate: 1.60Blake Corum: 16.2012.28 / 8.40Projection supported
Not injury-clearedOfficial report: Back; Limited Participation in Practice; game status Questionable.
+14.60
W2 / For Gosh Darn TutenNico Collins: 0.00Rachaad White: 14.300.00 / 8.77Needs context
Not injury-clearedRuled out Friday before the Sunday game.
+14.30
W4 / The DunbearMarcus Mariota: 5.80Deebo Samuel Sr.: 19.9612.34 / 11.15Close call
Not injury-cleared
+14.16
W3 / Lizard KingRashod Bateman: 5.70Terry McLaurin: 19.709.87 / 10.49Close call
Not injury-cleared
+14.00
W5 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksJaylen Waddle: 4.80Justin Jefferson: 18.8013.47 / 17.49Projection deviation
Not injury-cleared
+14.00
W4 / Philadelphia GregsJ.K. Dobbins: 7.20Ollie Gordon II: 21.008.45 / 6.54Close call
Not injury-cleared
+13.80
W3 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksJaylen Waddle: 6.40Jordan Addison: 20.0014.33 / 9.32Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+13.60
W1 / 2022 Pro BowlersKenny Gainwell: 3.68Mike Evans: 16.9013.31 / 11.86Close call
Not injury-cleared
+13.22
W3 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksRhamondre Stevenson: 6.80Jordan Addison: 20.0010.64 / 9.32Close call
Not injury-cleared
+13.20
W2 / Carls girthy ballsDrake Maye: 10.10Kirk Cousins: 22.7521.15 / 14.42Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+12.65
W1 / 2022 Pro BowlersBaker Mayfield: 10.80Brock Purdy: 23.1519.23 / 19.08Close call
Not injury-cleared
+12.35
W3 / Kory’s Fat CockC.J. Stroud: 13.35Aaron Rodgers: 25.6018.68 / 17.03Close call
Not injury-cleared
+12.25
W3 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksBucky Irving: 7.80Jordan Addison: 20.0013.62 / 9.32Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+12.20
W3 / My Nabers' Runaway McBrideMalik Nabers: 7.60Luther Burden III: 19.8012.99 / 11.05Close call
Not injury-cleared
+12.20
W1 / Carls girthy ballsDrake Maye: 11.60Chuba Hubbard: 23.7020.06 / 11.08Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+12.10
W1 / TedSam Darnold: 0.65Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 12.6017.61 / 9.17Projection supported
Game injury exitInjured on the opening series; did not finish the game.
+11.95
W4 / Philadelphia GregsTyler Warren: 9.10Ollie Gordon II: 21.0014.53 / 6.54Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+11.90
W2 / My Nabers' Runaway McBrideJordan Love: 15.25Bryce Young: 26.9519.89 / 18.14Close call
Not injury-cleared
+11.70
W4 / The Milk ManKenyon Sadiq: 0.00Colston Loveland: 11.7010.12 / 10.61Close call
Not injury-clearedOfficial report: Back; Limited Participation in Practice; game status Questionable.
+11.70
W3 / Kory’s Fat CockDe'Von Achane: 1.70Malik Washington: 13.300.00 / 11.70Needs context
Game injury exitFirst-quarter knee injury; officially ruled out for the remainder.
+11.60
W5 / Lizard KingRJ Harvey: 0.70Terry McLaurin: 12.2011.70 / 10.50Close call
Not injury-cleared
+11.50
W5 / Joaquin GoffTony Pollard: 5.20MarShawn Lloyd: 16.7010.32 / 10.05Close call
Not injury-cleared
+11.50
W5 / Joaquin GoffDK Metcalf: 5.30MarShawn Lloyd: 16.7013.24 / 10.05Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+11.40
W5 / The DunbearDavid Montgomery: 1.10Woody Marks: 12.5012.16 / 8.34Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+11.40
W1 / 2022 Pro BowlersDavante Adams: 5.60Mike Evans: 16.9013.00 / 11.86Close call
Not injury-cleared
+11.30
W1 / Carls girthy ballsPuka Nacua: 12.40Chuba Hubbard: 23.7019.97 / 11.08Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+11.30
W2 / For Gosh Darn TutenSaquon Barkley: 3.00Rachaad White: 14.3014.79 / 8.77Projection supported
Exited, returnedFirst-play stinger; returned after halftime.
+11.30
W4 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksBucky Irving: 6.10Devaughn Vele: 17.4013.21 / 11.18Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+11.30
W5 / The Milk ManOmarion Hampton: 4.90Blake Corum: 16.2010.17 / 8.40Close call
Not injury-cleared
+11.30
W5 / 2022 Pro BowlersBrock Purdy: 18.05Mike Evans: 29.3019.14 / 12.54Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+11.25
W4 / Lizard KingDerrick Henry: 15.90Emanuel Wilson: 27.0017.71 / 8.90Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+11.10
W5 / The Milk ManBo Nix: 8.15Malik Willis: 19.2519.15 / 17.07Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+11.10
W4 / Joaquin GoffDaniel Jones: 8.35Jameson Williams: 19.2019.62 / 12.09Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+10.85
W3 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksJonathan Taylor: 9.20Jordan Addison: 20.0018.40 / 9.32Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+10.80
W1 / Carls girthy ballsJeremiyah Love: 13.00Chuba Hubbard: 23.7012.78 / 11.08Close call
Not injury-cleared
+10.70
W4 / My Nabers' Runaway McBrideJordan Love: 15.05Brian Robinson: 25.7019.93 / 6.10Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+10.65
W4 / The Milk ManMalik Willis: 2.35Denzel Boston: 12.9015.37 / 10.54Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+10.55
W4 / My Nabers' Runaway McBrideTrevor Lawrence: 15.35Brian Robinson: 25.7021.41 / 6.10Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+10.35
W2 / Kory’s Fat CockCarson Wentz: 7.75Geno Smith: 18.0516.42 / 15.23Close call
Not injury-cleared
+10.30
W3 / Philadelphia GregsKyler Murray: 12.10Juwan Johnson: 22.3019.47 / 10.04Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+10.20
W4 / For Gosh Darn TutenSaquon Barkley: 2.00Khalil Shakir: 12.2010.77 / 9.41Close call
Not injury-cleared
+10.20
W5 / Lizard KingTyson Bagent: 2.05Terry McLaurin: 12.2018.25 / 10.50Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+10.15
W1 / Philadelphia GregsJalen Hurts: 26.75Jalen Coker: 36.8021.98 / 10.97Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+10.05
W2 / TedJavonte Williams: 8.00George Kittle: 18.0016.34 / 10.34Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+10.00
W1 / 2022 Pro BowlersQuinshon Judkins: 7.00Mike Evans: 16.9011.48 / 11.86Close call
Not injury-cleared
+9.90
W3 / Philadelphia GregsDeVonta Smith: 12.50Juwan Johnson: 22.3015.25 / 10.04Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+9.80
W1 / TedGeorge Kittle: 3.20Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 12.609.13 / 9.17Close call
Not injury-cleared
+9.40
W1 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksJared Goff: 18.50Isaiah Likely: 27.8021.06 / 10.35Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+9.30
W2 / The DunbearJaxson Dart: 1.00Woody Marks: 10.1019.83 / 9.13Projection supported
Game injury exitFirst-drive knee injury; ruled out for the second half.
+9.10
W2 / The DunbearBuccaneers: 4.00Steelers: 13.0012.47 / 10.54Close call
Not injury-cleared
+9.00
W2 / TedCaleb Williams: 9.10George Kittle: 18.0019.96 / 10.34Projection supported
Game injury exitLeft with a reported right hamstring injury; exact exit clock not verified here.
+8.90
W4 / Carls girthy ballsJeremiyah Love: 6.50Rome Odunze: 15.4016.73 / 9.44Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+8.90
W2 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksRhamondre Stevenson: 2.60Devaughn Vele: 11.4012.83 / 9.71Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+8.80
W2 / The Milk ManCaleb Douglas: 3.90Romeo Doubs: 12.609.12 / 10.63Close call
Not injury-cleared
+8.70
W1 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksLadd McConkey: 19.20Isaiah Likely: 27.8013.40 / 10.35Projection supported
Game injury exitThird-quarter exit; did not return.
+8.60
W4 / The DunbearDavid Montgomery: 4.30Tyler Allgeier: 12.9013.39 / 7.40Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+8.60
W4 / The DunbearLuther Burden III: 11.40Deebo Samuel Sr.: 19.9613.27 / 11.15Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+8.56
W3 / 2022 Pro BowlersLamar Jackson: 22.30Brock Bowers: 30.6024.58 / 13.10Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+8.30
W4 / TedTravis Kelce: 3.50KC Concepcion Jr.: 11.8011.80 / 11.47Close call
Not injury-cleared
+8.30
W4 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksJordan Addison: 9.10Devaughn Vele: 17.4014.65 / 11.18Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+8.30
W1 / Carls girthy ballsStefon Diggs: 15.50Chuba Hubbard: 23.7010.11 / 11.08Close call
Not injury-cleared
+8.20
W1 / Lizard KingJustin Herbert: 15.35Patrick Mahomes: 23.5020.99 / 17.86Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+8.15
W3 / Philadelphia GregsJalen Hurts: 14.15Juwan Johnson: 22.3020.40 / 10.04Projection supported
Exited, returnedConcussion evaluation, cleared, returned next drive; not tagged as a diagnosed concussion.
+8.15
W2 / Lizard KingTerry McLaurin: 7.00Jonah Coleman: 14.8014.30 / 6.28Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+7.80
W4 / Lizard KingPatrick Mahomes: 19.25Emanuel Wilson: 27.0021.78 / 8.90Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+7.75
W2 / Joaquin GoffDJ Moore: -0.10Tony Pollard: 7.5014.19 / 9.08Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+7.60
W5 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksJonathan Taylor: 11.20Justin Jefferson: 18.8017.59 / 17.49Close call
Not injury-cleared
+7.60
W3 / 2022 Pro BowlersCeeDee Lamb: 23.20Brock Bowers: 30.6018.71 / 13.10Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+7.40
W5 / My Nabers' Runaway McBrideTee Higgins: 4.20Tucker Kraft: 11.6014.03 / 11.54Projection supported
Not injury-clearedOfficial report: Groin, Neck; Full Participation in Practice; game status Questionable.
+7.40
W4 / The DunbearJaxon Smith-Njigba: 12.60Deebo Samuel Sr.: 19.9624.79 / 11.15Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+7.36
W2 / Carls girthy ballsPuka Nacua: 0.00Rome Odunze: 7.300.00 / 9.53Needs context
Not injury-clearedInactive Monday; alternatives may already have locked before the announcement. Saturday report: questionable for Monday, not a certain pre-Sunday scratch.
+7.30
W4 / The Milk ManGarrett Wilson: 5.70Denzel Boston: 12.9017.61 / 10.54Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+7.20
W5 / 2022 Pro BowlersDavante Adams: 22.10Mike Evans: 29.3015.66 / 12.54Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+7.20
W1 / My Nabers' Runaway McBrideGeorge Pickens: 5.80Malik Nabers: 12.9015.80 / 14.03Close call
Not injury-cleared
+7.10
W4 / Philadelphia GregsKyler Murray: 13.95Ollie Gordon II: 21.0020.62 / 6.54Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+7.05
W1 / Carls girthy ballsJoe Burrow: 16.70Chuba Hubbard: 23.7022.99 / 11.08Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+7.00
W4 / TedDontayvion Wicks: 4.80KC Concepcion Jr.: 11.8012.07 / 11.47Close call
Not injury-cleared
+7.00
W3 / 2022 Pro BowlersDavante Adams: 23.70Brock Bowers: 30.6015.46 / 13.10Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+6.90
W4 / Carls girthy ballsStefon Diggs: 8.50Rome Odunze: 15.4013.21 / 9.44Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+6.90
W3 / Lizard KingParker Washington: 13.00Terry McLaurin: 19.7015.79 / 10.49Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+6.70
W4 / My Nabers' Runaway McBrideChase Brown: 19.10Brian Robinson: 25.7017.46 / 6.10Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+6.60
W4 / Philadelphia GregsJalen Hurts: 14.45Ollie Gordon II: 21.0017.71 / 6.54Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+6.55
W1 / For Gosh Darn TutenSaquon Barkley: 9.00Matthew Golden: 15.5015.80 / 10.63Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+6.50
W4 / My Nabers' Runaway McBrideTrey McBride: 10.10Tucker Kraft: 16.5016.72 / 11.08Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+6.40
W4 / Joaquin GoffMatthew Stafford: 12.85Jameson Williams: 19.2018.50 / 12.09Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+6.35
W4 / Lizard KingJosh Allen: 21.05Emanuel Wilson: 27.0024.82 / 8.90Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+5.95
W1 / For Gosh Darn TutenBhayshul Tuten: 9.80Matthew Golden: 15.5011.15 / 10.63Close call
Not injury-cleared
+5.70
W1 / For Gosh Darn TutenJames Cook III: 9.90Matthew Golden: 15.5015.66 / 10.63Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+5.60
W4 / 2022 Pro BowlersDavante Adams: 7.20Mike Evans: 12.6014.03 / 11.53Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+5.40
W2 / 2022 Pro BowlersMike Evans: 8.40TreVeyon Henderson: 13.6013.04 / 9.94Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+5.20
W2 / My Nabers' Runaway McBrideMalik Nabers: 1.10Luther Burden III: 6.2014.58 / 11.93Projection supported
Exited, returnedShoulder exit late in the first quarter; returned in the second.
+5.10
W3 / The Milk ManQuentin Johnston: 7.00Carnell Tate: 11.8010.17 / 9.26Close call
Not injury-cleared
+4.80
W5 / The DunbearJosh Downs: 7.70Woody Marks: 12.5012.02 / 8.34Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+4.80
W5 / Philadelphia GregsAshton Jeanty: 10.70J.K. Dobbins: 15.4014.35 / 8.31Projection supported
Not injury-clearedOfficial report: Ankle, Foot; Did Not Participate In Practice; game status Questionable.
+4.70
W3 / My Nabers' Runaway McBrideGeorge Pickens: 15.20Luther Burden III: 19.8015.81 / 11.05Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+4.60
W4 / Kory’s Fat CockRashee Rice: 0.00Jaylen Wright: 4.5815.12 / 5.52Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+4.58
W2 / TedAaron Jones Sr.: 13.50George Kittle: 18.0013.27 / 10.34Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+4.50
W2 / For Gosh Darn TutenMatthew Golden: 9.80Rachaad White: 14.3011.77 / 8.77Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+4.50
W2 / Carls girthy ballsJoe Burrow: 18.25Kirk Cousins: 22.7519.94 / 14.42Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+4.50
W4 / For Gosh Darn TutenChristian Watson: 7.70Khalil Shakir: 12.2015.62 / 9.41Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+4.50
W3 / Joaquin GoffDaniel Jones: 8.25DJ Moore: 12.7016.66 / 11.85Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+4.45
W1 / My Nabers' Runaway McBrideLuther Burden III: 8.50Malik Nabers: 12.9013.37 / 14.03Close call
Not injury-cleared
+4.40
W4 / Lizard KingChris Olave: 22.60Emanuel Wilson: 27.0018.82 / 8.90Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+4.40
W1 / Lizard KingParker Washington: 19.10Kyle Monangai: 23.4013.04 / 8.08Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+4.30
W4 / 2022 Pro BowlersD'Andre Swift: 6.40Kenny Gainwell: 10.7014.22 / 9.02Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+4.30
W1 / My Nabers' Runaway McBrideTee Higgins: 8.90Malik Nabers: 12.9015.50 / 14.03Close call
Not injury-cleared
+4.00
W2 / 2022 Pro BowlersQuinshon Judkins: 9.80TreVeyon Henderson: 13.6012.53 / 9.94Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+3.80
W3 / Joaquin GoffJameson Williams: 8.90DJ Moore: 12.7012.76 / 11.85Close call
Not injury-cleared
+3.80
W4 / Joaquin GoffAmon-Ra St. Brown: 15.50Jameson Williams: 19.2020.31 / 12.09Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+3.70
W3 / For Gosh Darn TutenSaquon Barkley: 9.00Rachaad White: 12.6214.80 / 7.88Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+3.62
W5 / Lizard KingChris Olave: 8.60Terry McLaurin: 12.2017.15 / 10.50Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+3.60
W5 / The DunbearLuther Burden III: 8.90Woody Marks: 12.5013.50 / 8.34Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+3.60
W1 / TedDrake London: 5.50Wan'Dale Robinson: 8.8015.23 / 10.42Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+3.30
W4 / For Gosh Darn TutenDeshaun Watson: 14.60Cam Ward: 17.8017.15 / 14.99Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+3.20
W5 / TedJavonte Williams: 14.20Emeka Egbuka: 17.2016.61 / 10.83Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+3.00
W5 / Joaquin GoffDaniel Jones: 13.75MarShawn Lloyd: 16.7015.55 / 10.05Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+2.95
W2 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksJustin Jefferson: 8.50Devaughn Vele: 11.4016.63 / 9.71Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+2.90
W4 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksJaylen Waddle: 14.50Devaughn Vele: 17.4014.33 / 11.18Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+2.90
W2 / Philadelphia GregsJadarian Price: 4.00Emmett Johnson: 6.8614.32 / 5.59Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+2.86
W3 / Philadelphia GregsJadarian Price: 0.20Emmett Johnson: 2.9413.52 / 6.47Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+2.74
W1 / TedTravis Kelce: 10.10Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 12.609.56 / 9.17Close call
Not injury-cleared
+2.50
W2 / The DunbearDeebo Samuel Sr.: 7.66Woody Marks: 10.1011.69 / 9.13Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+2.44
W2 / The Milk ManBlake Corum: 10.20Romeo Doubs: 12.6010.84 / 10.63Close call
Not injury-cleared
+2.40
W1 / For Gosh Darn TutenCam Ward: 13.10Matthew Golden: 15.5017.70 / 10.63Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+2.40
W4 / Philadelphia GregsAshton Jeanty: 18.60Ollie Gordon II: 21.0015.21 / 6.54Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+2.40
W5 / Joaquin GoffAmon-Ra St. Brown: 14.34MarShawn Lloyd: 16.7021.52 / 10.05Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+2.36
W1 / Joaquin GoffMatthew Stafford: 5.65DK Metcalf: 8.0019.95 / 11.70Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+2.35
W3 / The DunbearChase Brown: 8.90Woody Marks: 11.1816.42 / 8.40Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+2.28
W1 / The Milk ManBo Nix: 5.75Kaelon Black: 8.0018.68 / 3.79Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+2.25
W2 / Joaquin GoffJameson Williams: 5.30Tony Pollard: 7.5012.18 / 9.08Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+2.20
W3 / Lizard KingBreece Hall: 8.50RJ Harvey: 10.7016.61 / 11.26Projection supported
Game injury exitReported game exit with a quad injury; exact time and return status unverified.
+2.20
W4 / TedBills: 7.00Rams: 9.0011.14 / 10.11Close call
Not injury-cleared
+2.00
W3 / Lizard KingOronde Gadsden: 0.00Terrance Ferguson: 1.908.18 / 9.67Close call
Not injury-cleared
+1.90
W2 / 2022 Pro BowlersD'Andre Swift: 11.90TreVeyon Henderson: 13.6012.09 / 9.94Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+1.70
W1 / The DunbearJayden Daniels: 19.30Deebo Samuel Sr.: 20.9619.43 / 9.81Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+1.66
W4 / Carls girthy ballsKirk Cousins: 26.25Drake Maye: 27.8517.30 / 19.71Projection deviation
Not injury-cleared
+1.60
W5 / The Milk ManZay Flowers: 14.60Blake Corum: 16.2016.36 / 8.40Projection supported
Not injury-clearedOfficial report: Foot; Limited Participation in Practice; game status Questionable.
+1.60
W1 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksTyler Shough: 26.30Isaiah Likely: 27.8019.98 / 10.35Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+1.50
W1 / 2022 Pro BowlersCeeDee Lamb: 15.40Mike Evans: 16.9016.62 / 11.86Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+1.50
W1 / Kory’s Fat CockAaron Rodgers: 14.75Deshaun Watson: 16.0517.11 / 14.29Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+1.30
W3 / Lizard KingPatrick Mahomes: 18.40Terry McLaurin: 19.7021.83 / 10.49Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+1.30
W5 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksRhamondre Stevenson: 17.50Justin Jefferson: 18.8012.41 / 17.49Projection deviation
Not injury-clearedOfficial report: Knee; Limited Participation in Practice; game status Questionable.
+1.30
W5 / 2022 Pro BowlersJameis Winston: 28.00Mike Evans: 29.3014.43 / 12.54Close call
Not injury-cleared
+1.30
W3 / Lizard KingJosh Allen: 18.50Terry McLaurin: 19.7025.36 / 10.49Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+1.20
W4 / For Gosh Darn TutenBhayshul Tuten: 11.10Khalil Shakir: 12.2011.88 / 9.41Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+1.10
W1 / Philadelphia GregsJadarian Price: 7.80Emmett Johnson: 8.8013.40 / 4.92Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+1.00
W3 / Joaquin GoffAmon-Ra St. Brown: 11.90DJ Moore: 12.7020.50 / 11.85Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+0.80
W1 / The Milk ManOmarion Hampton: 7.30Kaelon Black: 8.0015.79 / 3.79Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+0.70
W3 / The Milk ManMalik Willis: 11.10Carnell Tate: 11.8017.22 / 9.26Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+0.70
W1 / Lizard KingBreece Hall: 22.80Kyle Monangai: 23.4015.47 / 8.08Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+0.60
W2 / Lizard KingBreece Hall: 14.20Jonah Coleman: 14.8014.49 / 6.28Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+0.60
W3 / Joaquin GoffDK Metcalf: 12.10DJ Moore: 12.7012.32 / 11.85Close call
Not injury-cleared
+0.60
W5 / Philadelphia GregsOllie Gordon II: 14.80J.K. Dobbins: 15.4010.54 / 8.31Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+0.60
W2 / The DunbearJaylen Warren: 9.70Woody Marks: 10.1012.20 / 9.13Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+0.40
W5 / For Gosh Darn TutenNico Collins: 10.60Khalil Shakir: 11.0018.33 / 11.68Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+0.40
W3 / Carls girthy ballsJoe Burrow: 24.40Kirk Cousins: 24.7020.22 / 15.81Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+0.30
W3 / Kory’s Fat CockCam Skattebo: 13.00Malik Washington: 13.3014.95 / 11.70Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+0.30
W1 / Joaquin GoffRico Dowdle: 4.10Tony Pollard: 4.4012.23 / 10.88Close call
Not injury-cleared
+0.30
W1 / The Milk ManCarnell Tate: 7.80Kaelon Black: 8.0010.42 / 3.79Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+0.20
W2 / For Gosh Darn TutenChristian Watson: 14.10Rachaad White: 14.3013.64 / 8.77Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+0.20
W5 / Philadelphia GregsJalen Hurts: 15.20J.K. Dobbins: 15.4016.92 / 8.31Projection supported
Not injury-cleared
+0.20
W3 / Carls girthy ballsStefon Diggs: 7.30Rome Odunze: 7.409.57 / 8.79Close call
Not injury-cleared
+0.10
W4 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksIsaiah Likely: 13.60Mark Andrews: 13.7010.81 / 10.12Close call
Not injury-cleared
+0.10

Projection deviations worth reviewing

These are selected using forecasts, even when the decision happened to work. A materially higher projection can justify a question, not a verdict; matchup reasoning and late news may explain it.

Material projection deviations independent of outcome
Week / teamStartedAlternativeProjection differenceRealized differenceInjury context
W4 / The DunbearMarcus MariotaJacoby Brissett+6.24+6.30Not established
W4 / For Gosh Darn TutenSaquon BarkleyMatthew Golden+3.43+9.70Not established
W4 / For Gosh Darn TutenBhayshul TutenMatthew Golden+2.32+0.60Not established
W4 / Carls girthy ballsKirk CousinsDrake Maye+2.41+1.60Not established
W5 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksBucky IrvingJustin Jefferson+3.99-15.70Not established
W5 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksJaylen WaddleJustin Jefferson+4.02+14.00Not established
W5 / Dalvin and the ChimpmunksRhamondre StevensonJustin Jefferson+5.08+1.30Not established
W5 / Carls girthy ballsKirk CousinsDrake Maye+5.80+27.05Not established