2026 value decomposition
WAR Lab
Roster strength, schedule luck and lineup execution are now fed by the completed 2025 matchup layer. Transaction value is handled separately with replacement-value logic.
Scoring WAR + schedule swing
Scoring WAR = all-play expected wins minus a .500 baseline across the 14-week regular season.
| Rank | Manager | Scoring WAR | Expected wins | Actual wins | Schedule swing | Avg points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Hoth | +1.41 | 3.91 | 0 | -3.91 | 166.47 |
| 2 | Brent Holst | +0.59 | 3.09 | 0 | -3.09 | 149.20 |
| 3 | Andy Heckman | +0.50 | 3.00 | 0 | -3.00 | 144.90 |
| 4 | Jake Carlson | +0.50 | 3.00 | 0 | -3.00 | 156.13 |
| 5 | Jon Locarni | +0.14 | 2.64 | 0 | -2.64 | 148.01 |
| 6 | Will Maness | +0.05 | 2.55 | 0 | -2.55 | 149.96 |
| 7 | Sam Dunbar | -0.05 | 2.45 | 0 | -2.45 | 146.44 |
| 8 | Teddy Pane | -0.23 | 2.27 | 0 | -2.27 | 140.59 |
| 9 | Greg Ayars | -0.32 | 2.18 | 0 | -2.18 | 131.01 |
| 10 | John Hachat | -0.32 | 2.18 | 0 | -2.18 | 140.65 |
| 11 | Will Shires | -0.86 | 1.64 | 0 | -1.64 | 132.90 |
| 12 | Kory Hubers | -1.41 | 1.09 | 0 | -1.09 | 132.11 |