SAE Champions League · Analytics
Luck Lab + Draft DNA
Schedule luck is calculated from the complete equal-schedule 2025 regular season. Playoff weeks are intentionally excluded from luck and all-play comparisons.
2025 scope: 168 regular-season team-weeks · Weeks 1–14. Full Weeks 1–17 production and lineup analysis live in Data Lab and Lineup Efficiency.
2025 regular season
Luck Lab
Expected wins compare each weekly score with the other 11 teams. Schedule luck = actual wins − all-play expected wins.
| Team | Record | PF | PA | Exp. W | Luck | All-play | Avg | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kory's Fat Cock Kory Hubers | 13-1 | 2192.42 | 1833.42 | 10.18 | +2.82 | 72.7% | 156.60 | 190.85 |
| Philadelphia Gregs Greg Ayars | 7-7 | 1872.59 | 1910.01 | 5.45 | +1.55 | 39.0% | 133.76 | 180.40 |
| Dalvin and the Chimpmunks Andy Heckman | 5-9 | 1699.95 | 1956.50 | 3.91 | +1.09 | 27.9% | 121.43 | 146.25 |
| The Milk Man John Hachat | 10-4 | 2225.64 | 1954.08 | 9.73 | +0.27 | 69.5% | 158.97 | 199.50 |
| Jonny lol Jon Locarni | 6-8 | 1828.75 | 1969.25 | 5.91 | +0.09 | 42.2% | 130.63 | 168.40 |
| The Dunbear Sam Dunbar | 9-5 | 2130.59 | 1911.48 | 9.00 | +0.00 | 64.3% | 152.19 | 210.61 |
| Jacob Carlson's Deepball Jake Carlson | 5-9 | 1822.41 | 2015.78 | 5.27 | -0.27 | 37.7% | 130.17 | 158.60 |
| Nico's Mail Order McBride Brent Holst | 8-6 | 2098.50 | 1988.37 | 8.45 | -0.45 | 60.4% | 149.89 | 194.95 |
| I Have Downs Stephen Hoth | 8-6 | 2103.18 | 1986.48 | 9.00 | -1.00 | 64.3% | 150.23 | 178.35 |
| Joaquin Goff Will Shires | 5-9 | 1911.56 | 1992.57 | 6.00 | -1.00 | 42.9% | 136.54 | 200.26 |
| Ted Teddy Pane | 3-11 | 1768.59 | 2072.66 | 4.27 | -1.27 | 30.5% | 126.33 | 179.70 |
| Lizard King Will Maness | 5-9 | 2013.20 | 2076.78 | 6.82 | -1.82 | 48.7% | 143.80 | 179.75 |
2025 auction construction
Draft DNA
Dalvin and the Chimpmunks
57.1%Andy Heckman
QB $12RB $33WR $123TE $10Top-3 concentration 57.1%
Nico’s Mail Order McBride
43.4%Brent Holst
QB $44RB $43WR $77TE $32Top-3 concentration 43.4%
Philadelphia Gregs
56.5%Greg Ayars
QB $59RB $85WR $47TE $6Top-3 concentration 56.5%
Jacob Carlson’s Deepball
59.1%Jake Carlson
QB $61RB $65WR $49TE $5Top-3 concentration 59.1%
The Milk Man
64%John Hachat
QB $21RB $110WR $66TE $1Top-3 concentration 64%
Jonny lol
57.8%Jon Locarni
QB $66RB $32WR $89TE $12Top-3 concentration 57.8%
Kory’s Fat Cock
77%Kory Hubers
QB $57RB $69WR $71TE $1Top-3 concentration 77%
The Dunbear
60.5%Sam Dunbar
QB $75RB $71WR $46TE $7Top-3 concentration 60.5%
I Have Downs
67.5%Stephen Hoth
QB $26RB $98WR $66TE $9Top-3 concentration 67.5%
Ted
63.7%Teddy Pane
QB $70RB $26WR $83TE $11Top-3 concentration 63.7%
Lizard King
54.2%Will Maness
QB $58RB $61WR $48TE $18Top-3 concentration 54.2%
Joaquin Goff
67%Will Shires
QB $20RB $135WR $42TE $2Top-3 concentration 67%
Market movement
Biggest 2024 → 2025 risers
Chase Brown RB
$8 → $38 +$30
Malik Nabers WR
$25 → $49 +$24
Jayden Daniels QB
$25 → $47 +$22
Kyler Murray QB
$8 → $27 +$19
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR
$6 → $24 +$18
Drake Maye QB
$1 → $19 +$18
Tee Higgins WR
$8 → $24 +$16
Nico Collins WR
$16 → $32 +$16
Saquon Barkley RB
$39 → $55 +$16
Courtland Sutton WR
$2 → $16 +$14